A long-term prediction of mean monthly temperatures by the possibility theoretical method of measurement reduction in the presence of a priori information about input data is studied. The possibility of the event is oriented to a relative estimation of the truth of the event on a rank scale, where only the relations "larger", "smaller", or "equal" have a meaningful interpretation. Thus, the prediction to have a certain temperature in a given month is characterized as "more" or "less" possible.
Department of Computer Methods of Physics, Faculty of Physics, Moscow State University, Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119992, Russia
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